Energy Economics 2025-06-30

European wholesale power prices increased to an unprecedented level during the energy crisis in 2022. To tackle the adverse impact on consumers, Spain and Portugal implemented the Iberian Exception (IE) in June 2022, intending to decouple power prices from the rest of Europe to reduce consumer energy bills. The IE posed challenges and questions, including the impact of foreign demand for Spanish electricity, whether the policy would subsidise French power prices, and whether it would reduce energy bills for consumers. Given that this was a policy implemented in the middle of a continental gas supply crisis, we focus on the direct impact of the policy on gas demand in Spain and in Europe. This is interesting because other aspects of the IE – such as reducing consumer bills - could have been, and in other countries were, addressed by other policies. The ‘exception’ was allowed by the European Commission (on behalf of the EU27) because it was deemed to be likely to have a limited pan-European impact on electricity prices. By contrast, Spain competes directly with other European countries for LNG supplies on the global gas market and hence large effects in Spain would necessarily spillover to gas prices in the rest of Europe. Our findings suggested that IE successfully lowered the fossil fuel bids with a secondary effect of decoupling the Spanish power markets from France. Decoupled observations increased by +59.2% compared with our reference period. Even the border between Spain and Portugal was decoupled slightly by +0.9%. Daily net outflow to France increased by 2.3 GWh daily. Daily net outflow to Morocco increased 32 times, and outflow to Andorra increased by 25%. The power outflow increased the domestic electricity price by 24.8%, relative to the effect in the absence of interconnection. We also simulated the counterfactual scenario by investigating wholesale electricity prices without the subsidy paid to gas generators. Our demand and supply adjustment scenario shows that the subsidy reduced Iberian electricity day-ahead prices by 35.3%. The model was further used to compare the gas-fired generation between June 2022 and February 2023, when the gas price was above the gas cap. Depending on the scenarios, IE increased the Iberian gas burnt by 19.2%; On the EU level, gas burnt also increased by 1.3%. The total Iberian foreign demand also increased gas for power burnt by +5.47% in Iberia (+0.81% across the EU), relative to the effect in the absence of interconnection. Lou, H. K. Pollitt, M. G. Robinson, R. Arcos, A. V. Iberian Exception, Energy Crisis, Gas Price Cap, Electricity Market 2025-05-31 Germany has implemented a range of measures to mitigate climate change. The implementation of such measures results in the imposition of financial burdens and restrictions on residents. Consequently, individual attitudes toward the fairness and effectiveness of such measures are a critical factor in ensuring policy acceptance. In order to formulate effective and widely supported climate policy, continuous individual-level data is needed. Nevertheless, there is a shortage of high-quality data in this field in Germany. The Green SÖP represents a rare exception in this regard, providing individual data on climate policy measures since 2012. This data description outlines the recent extension of the Green SÖP, which received financial support from the E.ON Foundation. A newly recruited household panel was surveyed in 2021 on their attitudes toward climate change, energy costs and usage, energy and transport transition, and carbon pricing. In addition, experiments on sustainable shopping and emission allowances were included in the survey. This data description provides a comprehensive overview of the content and methodology of the first of four survey waves, conducted in 2021, along with empirical evidence regarding its representativeness for the German population. Eßer, Jana Frondel, Manuel Holtz, Leander Vance, Colin Household panel, energy transition, transport transition, climate change, policy preferences, fairness, acceptance 2025 Understanding the distribution of carbon footprints across population groups is crucial for designing fair and acceptable climate policies. Using granular consumption data from France, we quantify the gender gap in carbon footprints related to food and transport and investigate its underlying drivers. We show that women emit 26% less carbon than men in these two sectors, which together account for half of the average individual carbon footprint. Socioeconomic factors, biological differences and gender differences in distances traveled explain part of the gap, but up to 38% remains unexplained. Red meat and car — high-emission goods often associated with male identity — account for most of the residual, highlighting the role of gender differences in preferences in shaping disparities in carbon footprints. Berland, Ondine Leroutier, Marion gender; carbon footprints 2025-05-14 Hydrogen-based long-duration electricity storage (LDES) is a key component of renewable energy systems to deal with seasonality and prolonged periods of low wind and solar energy availability. In this paper, we investigate how electrified heating with heat pumps impacts LDES requirements in a fully renewable European energy system, and which role thermal storage can play. Using a large weather dataset of 78 weather years, we find that electrified heating significantly increases LDES needs, as optimal average energy capacities more than quadruple across all weather years compared to a scenario without electrified heating. We attribute 75% of this increase to a leverage effect, as additional electric load amplifies storage needs during times of low renewable availability. The remaining 25% are the result of a compound effect, where exceptional cold spells coincide with periods of renewable scarcity. Furthermore, heat pumps increase the variance in optimal storage capacities between weather years substantially because of demand-side weather variability. Long-duration thermal storage attached to district heating networks can reduce LDES needs by on average 36%. To support and safeguard wide-spread heating electrification, policymakers should expedite the creation of adequate regulatory frameworks for both long-duration storage types to de-risk investments in light of high weather variability. Felix Schmidt Alexander Roth Wolf-Peter Schill 2025-05 Electrification typically promotes economic development and enhances household wellbeing. However, how electrification affects the economic activities of different demographic groups is not yet sufficiently understood. Focusing only on aggregate household-level outcomes may overlook unequal effects on different individuals, which may potentially result in intra-household inequities. Here, we use panel data from Ethiopia to analyze the implications for different groups of individuals. Specifically, we analyze how electrification is associated with labor time allocation of male and female adults, children, and elderly household members. For adults, we find that electrification is positively associated with off-farm working hours and negatively associated with time spent on own farming activities and unpaid housework such as firewood and water fetching. For working-age women, the positive association with the time spent on off-farm activities is particularly large. For children, most of the associations are not statistically significant, even though electrification seems to increase boy’s time allocation to own farming activities, possibly substituting for some of the reduced adult time spent on farming. Differentiating between sources of electricity, we find that the effects are typically larger for grid than for off-grid solar electricity. Our results suggest that electrification is economically beneficial and can promote more gender-equitable labor outcomes. Pieper, Theresa Nguyen, Thanh Tung Qaim, Matin Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies 2025-06-23 We develop and quantify a novel growth theory in which economic activity endogenously shifts from material production to quality improvements. Consumers derive utility from goods with differing environmental footprints: necessities are material-intensive and polluting, while luxuries are more service-based and emit less. Innovation can be directed toward either material productivity or product~quality. Because demand for luxuries is more sensitive to quality, the economy gradually becomes “weightless”: growth is driven by quality improvements, services become the dominant employment sector, and material production stabilizes at a finite level. This structural transformation enables rising living standards with declining environmental intensity, providing an endogenous path to degrowth in material output without compromising economic progress. Policy can accelerate the transition, but its burden is uneven, falling more heavily on the poor than on the rich. Philippe Aghion Timo Boppart Michael Peters Matthew Schwartzman Fabrizio Zilibotti 2025-06 Using a two-sector structural model, we identify abatement, energy prices, transition demand for permits, and regulatory supply shocks as the key drivers of permit prices in the third phase of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). Through an innovative approach, we estimate unobservable abatement shocks and quantify the contribution of each factor to carbon price variability, which we find t o b e approximately eighty times greater than it would be under an optimal carbon pricing scenario aligned with the social cost of carbon. To address this, we propose the Carbon Cap Rule (CCR) – a rule-based cap adjustment mechanism that dynamically responds to deviations in emissions and abatement costs. The CCR reduces volatility by 55% compared to the current EU ETS cap, and cuts welfare losses in consumption equivalence terms by 40%. Benmir, Ghassane Roman, Josselin Taschini, Luca EU ETS; contingent permit allocation; social cost of carbon; Bayesian estimation; carbon central bank 2025-02-05 The global energy transition toward net-zero emissions by 2050 is expected to increase the share of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) in the energy mix. As a result, industrial actors will encounter more complex market conditions, characterized by volatile electricity prices, rising carbon costs, and stricter regulations. This situation calls for the industry to capitalize on opportunities in both spot-price arbitrage and reserve market participation, while also meeting future regulatory demands. This paper presents a multi-stage optimization framework that supports investment decisions in flexible assets and enables reserve market participation by delivering ancillary services. The framework incorporates investment decisions, spot- and reserve-market bidding, and real-time operation. Uncertainty in market prices and operational conditions is handled through a nodal formulation. A case study of a large industrial site in Norway is performed, comparing the investment decisions with future technology- and carbon pricing scenarios under varying market conditions. Amund Norland Lasse Skare Ole Jakob Viken Stian Backe 2025-06 This paper evaluates the economic viability of decentralised solar systems in Abu Dhabi. By analysing levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV), and internal rate of return (IRR) across customer groups, it finds that while rooftop solar generation is not yet cost-effective for heavily subsidised sectors, it remains viable for industrial and commercial users. The study suggests that subsidy reform could significantly improve the financial appeal of decentralised systems, aligning with Abu Dhabi’s decarbonisation targets under the UAE Energy Strategy 2050. McCloskey, PJ Malheiros Remor, Rodrigo renewable energy, solar energy, decentralised solar, centralised solar, LCOE, Abu Dhabi 2025-04-10 This study presents the first academically grounded framework for developing a national biomethane strategy in Türkiye, addressing a critical gap in renewable gas governance. Using Italy as a comparative reference within a Most Similar Systems Design (MSSD) framework, the paper applies a structured policy transfer approach supported by multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), a policy comparability matrix, cosine similarity scoring (0.964), SWOT analysis, and the OECD’s Policy Coherence for Sustainable Development (PCSD) principles. The framework integrates qualitative and quantitative tools to assess alignment in agricultural potential, infrastructure capacity, market regulation, and institutional governance. Key transferable elements from Italy include green certificate schemes, incentive structures for production with grid injection, and stakeholder mechanisms enabling biomethane scale-up. Türkiye’s strengths (e.g., biomass availability), weaknesses (e.g., institutional fragmentation), and opportunities (e.g., EU-aligned reforms) are examined alongside key threats, particularly the intrinsic complexities of its natural gas market and coordination gaps. Italy’s experience further informs broader strategic insights: prioritizing biomethane over biomass-based electricity generation, leveraging models like Biogasdoneright to integrate agriculture and energy, and positioning biomethane as a decarbonization tool for transport and industry—especially under the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This transition logic emphasizes biomethane in hard-to-electrify sectors, where it adds more systemic value than traditional biomass-to-electricity uses increasingly served by solar and wind. The paper contributes to comparative energy governance literature by offering a replicable framework for institutional lesson-drawing. It provides actionable insights for emerging economies aiming to align bioenergy policy with long-term energy security, circular economy integration, and sustainability transitions. Arinc, Ibrahim Said 2025-06-11 For investors, the decision to install photovoltaic (PV) systems largely depends on whether the investment proves worthwhile. Subsidies play an important role in this context. Currently, the German subsidy programme is based on feed-in tariffs: Property owners are guaranteed a fixed price for 20 years at which the electricity they generate can be sold. This ZEW policy brief studies the German subsidy programme, considering the different effects on homeowners and landlords. Homeowner investors are will- ing to pay only 67 cents for every euro of total discounted future benefits from electricity production. Despite similar investment costs and feed-in revenues, landlords adopt considerably fewer PV installations systems for tenant electricity (Mieterstrom) due to high administrative costs. For purposes of economic policy, the undervaluation of future benefits from PV investments leads to an important conclusion: Had the investment costs been subsidised in advance, over one third of the subsidies spent in the past could have been saved. If landlords are to invest more, bureaucratic hurdles within the tenant electricity programme need to be removed - which would also result in cost savings. Electric vehicles and heat pumps are key elements of the energy tran- sition and crucial for achieving climate neutrality Rausch, Sebastian von Ditfurth, Jakob 2025 To ensure security of supply in the power sector, many countries are already using or discussing the introduction of capacity mechanisms. Two main types of such mechanisms include capacity markets and capacity reserves. Simultaneously, the expansion of variable renewable energy sources increases the need for power sector flexibility, for which there are promising yet often under-utilized options on the demand side. In this paper, we analyze how a centralized capacity market and an advanced reliability reserve with a moderately high activation price affect investments in demand-side flexibility technologies. We do so for a German case study of 2030, using an open-source capacity expansion model and incorporating detailed demand-side flexibility potentials across industry, process heat, and district heating. We show that a centralized capacity market effectively caps peak prices in the wholesale electricity market and thus reduces incentives for investments in demand-side flexibility options. The advanced reliability reserve induces substantially higher flexibility investments while leading to similar overall electricity supply costs and ensuring a similar level of security of supply. The advanced reliability reserve could thus create a learning environment for flexibility technologies to support the transition to climate neutral energy systems. Additionally, an advanced reliability reserve could be introduced faster and is more flexible than a centralized capacity market. While concrete design parameters are yet to be specified, we argue that policymakers should consider the reliability reserve concept in upcoming decision on capacity mechanisms in Germany and beyond. Franziska Klaucke Karsten Neuhoff Alexander Roth Wolf-Peter Schill Leon Stolle 2025-06 We examine how exogenous changes in exposure to air pollution over the past two decades have altered the disparities in home values between Black and White homeowners. We find that air quality capitalization rates are significantly lower for Black homeowners. In fact, they are so much lower that, despite secular reductions in the Black-White pollution exposure gap, disparities in housing values have increased during this period. An exploration of mechanisms suggests that roughly two-thirds of this difference is the result of direct discrimination while the remaining one-third can be attributed to systemic discrimination. Zivin, Joshua Graff Singer, Gregor house prices; environmental justice; air pollution; race; discrimination 2024-12-11 This study explores the connection between renewable energy consumption and international trade, with a particular focus on the influence of climate policy. We argue that this relationship is nonlinear and subject to threshold effects. Using a dynamic threshold model developed by Seo and Shin (2016), we analyze data from 1990 to 2023 for a panel of 29 developed and developing countries. Our findings reveal that climate policy plays a crucial role in shaping the renewable energy–trade nexus, with effects varying according to policy stringency and a country's development level. In developing countries, renewable energy consumption consistently enhances exports, regardless of policy stringency. In contrast, in developed countries, strict policies reduce import dependence, indicating a move toward energy independence, but they may also dampen the positive trade effects of renewable energy due to higher compliance costs and regulatory barriers. These results underscore the need for tailored policy strategies: developed countries should balance ambitious environmental goals with trade efficiency by streamlining regulations and fostering international policy harmonization, while developing countries can leverage renewable energy adoption as a tool to enhance exports, attract investment, and strengthen technological capabilities. Ridha Nouira Leila Ben Salem Sami Saafi Christophe Rault renewable energy consumption, international trade, climate policy stringency, dynamic threshold model, sustainable development 2025 This paper analyses the impact of carbon pricing on residential heating affordability using a theoretical household model with endogenous choice of a renewable heating technology. We compare two compensation policies: a renewable heating subsidy and a lump-sum transfer. The subsidy is the most effective policy to reduce the household's burden if the renewable heating technology is the optimal choice with carbon pricing alone. Otherwise, the relative effectiveness of the compensation policies depends on whether they shift the household's choice towards renewable heating. Overall, our study emphasizes the need of considering technological adjustment when analyzing how carbon pricing affects heating affordability. Reda, Milan Jakob Gawel, Erik Lehmann, Paul residential heating, affordability, climate policy, environmental taxes and subsidies 2025 Since the 2016 Paris Agreement, countries and companies have been increasingly pressured to adopt appropriate response measures to climate change. However, it is not clear what factors drive firms to undertake climate change actions. Using a correlated random effects panel probit model, this paper contributes to the literature by analyzing the influence of advances in climate policies, as measured by the Climate Change Performance Index, on firms committing to set a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target. We find that advances in national climate policies are associated with a higher probability of firms committing, particularly for firms in the non-financial sectors and, among them, for those that do not belong to sectors considered as the largest producers of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Lastly, the availability of funding for green projects, indirectly measured by the issuance of green bonds per country, also positively contributes to the probability of firms committing. Marco A. Hernandez Vega Eduardo Martínez González Binary response models;Climate policy;GHG emissions 2025-06 This paper applies a fractional integration framework to investigate the behaviour of the stock returns of two sets of representative US companies with different environmental profiles, namely green versus polluting firms, as well as of the widely used CPU (Climate Policy Uncertainty) index over the period from January 2017 to March 2025. This time span includes the first Trump administration and the following Biden one, with very different attitudes towards the environment. The analysis suggests that (i) the financial performance of stock returns of polluting companies was generally worse under the Biden administration, whilst there was no significant positive impact on green companies, as implied by the estimated time trend coefficients: (ii) the effects of shocks tend to fade away more quickly in both types of companies under the Biden administration, as implied by the estimates of the differencing parameter, though only in two cases they eventually vanish. Finally, CPU appears to have been decreasing under the Biden administration, whilst the effects of shocks seem to be transitory in both periods. On the whole, the Biden policies to combat climate changes appear to have reduced climate uncertainty and to have led to a better financial performance of environmentally friendly companies. Their reversal could have damaging effects on the environment. Fekria Belhouichet Guglielmo Maria Caporale Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana time series, trends, persistence, fractional integration, green and polluting firms, Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) index, Trump administration, Biden administration 2025 Four in five people without access to electricity live in Sub-Saharan Africa, where minigrids are seen as a key solution to closing the energy access gap. Yet investment in minigrids remains constrained by low and unpredictable demand, especially in fragile and conflict-affected settings. We study electricity demand in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo – a region marked by conflict and institutional fragility. Drawing on census data from five localities, we track connection rates and electricity consumption over a six-year period. In addition, a detailed pre-connection survey allows us to link household and firm characteristics to actual connection uptake and electricity consumption. We find that demand is highly heterogeneous, and only weakly associated with pre-grid data. This makes planning and sizing of mini-grids particularly difficult and risky. We then examine how the local mini-grid operator, Virunga Energies, has addressed this challenge through an integrated development strategy that includes supporting industrial clients, providing micro-credit, promoting electric cooking, and leveraging temporary anchor loads. The case highlights how mini-grid viability in fragile settings may depend less on improved demand forecasting and more on the capacity to build and coordinate demand alongside infrastructure. This has implications for electrification policy, investment design, and the role of public and donor support in overcoming coordination failures. Lunanga, Elie Stoop, Nik Verpoorten, Marijke Desbureaux, Sébastien Kivu, DRC, DRCongo, mmini-grid, electricity, energy 2025-06 Achieving climate-neutrality is a global imperative that demands coordinated efforts from both science and robust policies supporting a smooth transition across multiple sectors. However, the interdisciplinary and complex science-to-policy nature of this effort makes it particularly challenging for several countries. Greece has set ambitious goals across different policies; however, their progress is often debated. For the first time, we simulated a scenario representing Greece's climate-neutrality goals drawing upon its main relevant energy, agricultural and water policies by 2050. We follow a systems-nexus approach that encompasses the FABLE Calculator, the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), and the tools WaterReqGCH, LandReqCalcGCH and BiofuelGCH. The results indicate that most individual/sector policies have the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy (residential, industrial, transportation, services, agriculture, and energy production). However, their implementation seems to be based on governance assumptions that often overlook sectoral interdependencies and infrastructure constraints, hindering progress towards a unified and more holistic sustainable transition. Phoebe Koundouri Angelos Alamanos Giannis Arampatzidis Stathis Devves Konstantinos Dellis Christopher Deranian Climate Neutrality, Energy-emissions modelling, LEAP, FABLE Calculator, WaterReqGCH, Decarbonization, Greece 2025-06-17 This study investigates the potential health impacts of implementing a hypothetical Congestion Charging Scheme (CCS) in Los Angeles (LA), a city facing significant traffic-related air pollution. Traffic emissions are a major source of pollutants like particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which have been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Utilizing intervention-based epidemiological study designs, the research estimates the effects of a proposed 25% traffic reduction in downtown LA. Simulated results indicate a substantial decrease in NO2 and PM10 levels, with predicted increases of 1, 263.58 years of life gained (YLG) in the greater LA area over a decade. The discussion highlights the potential of CCS to not only reduce pollution but also address socio-economic disparities in health outcomes. This model could serve as a blueprint for other urban areas considering similar policy interventions. Kejriwal, Mayank 2025-06-05 Limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 deg C-ideally 1.5 deg C-is central to the Paris Agreement; however, recent projections by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) suggest that current trajectories place the world on course for over 3 deg C of warming by the end of the century. Ports play a critical dual role in this climate crisis. On one hand, they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions through port operations, waste management, and worker mobility. On the other, they are highly vulnerable to climate impacts such as sea level rise and changing wave dynamics, which threaten the integrity of infrastructure and disrupt the global flow of goods-80-90% of which pass through ports. This study investigates the effectiveness of a targeted seminar series implemented in 2023 to enhance the understanding of sustainable development principles among Greek port stakeholders, including port authorities, municipal port funds, and marina operators. The seminars aimed to build capacity in areas such as blue growth, green energy, circular economy, and digital transitions. In addition, this research captures stakeholder preferences for climate mitigation and adaptation technological solutions through a DCE. Solutions presented were drawn from the MENA Maritime Accelerator and grouped into five key action areas: circular economy, clean energy production and storage, water quality, and air quality. The findings contribute to assessing both the awareness-raising potential of such training interventions and the prioritisation of climate-resilient innovations in the port sector. Lydia Papadaki George Halkos Phoebe Koundouri ports infrastructure, pairwise comparison, innovations, decision-making, climate change 2025-06-16 Rapidly changing global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions are prompting countries to rethink their energy and food security strategies more rigorously than ever before. This urgency is particularly evident in many developing countries, especially those of the former Soviet Union (FSU), which have intensified their efforts to reconceptualize agro-industrial complexes (AICs) concerning energy efficiency and renewable energy. The aim of this study is to conduct an integrative literature review to provide a systematic and comprehensive perspective on this subject. An analysis based on the Scopus and Google Scholar databases shows that AICs have attracted considerable interest in recent years due to their potential to increase the efficiency and competitiveness of the agricultural sectors. The main issue with AICs is the urgent need to scale up their application in conjunction with sustainable development practices such as green growth, circular economy and energy transition. The integration of renewable energy sources into AICs can improve agricultural development by promoting the production and integration of sustainable energy into the agricultural sector. The literature review concludes with theoretical and conceptual implications on the studied topic that will be of interest to scholars, policy makers and businesses. Niftiyev, Ibrahim energy efficiency, integrative literature review, renewable energy integration, sustainable agriculture, synthesis, agro-industrial complexes, circular economy 2025 We study climate-related central bank communication using a novel dataset containing 35, 487 speeches delivered by 131 central banks from 1986 to 2023. We employ natural language processing techniques to identify and trace the evolution of key climate-related narratives centred around (i) green finance, and (ii) climate-related financial risks. We find that central bank public communication strategies are primarily driven by underlying institutional factors, rather than exposure to climate-related risks. We then study the impact of climate-related communication on financial market dynamics through both a portfolio and a firm-level analysis. We find that equity returns of ‘green’ firms outperform those of ‘dirty’ firms when central banks engage more frequently and intensely with climate-related topics. Campiglio, Emanuele Deyris, Jérôme Romelli, Davide Scalisi, Ginevra central banking; climate change; low-carbon transition; central bank communication; climate-related risks; green finance; text analysis; topic modelling; asset pricing 2025-01-21 We investigate the impact of incorporating natural capital dynamics on optimal allocation in an economy subject to uncertainty. We present new estimates on climate damages to natural capital and elasticities of substitution between natural capital and other production inputs. Using these estimates, we examine how shadow prices vary across model specifications and parameter calibrations. Our findings indicate that the social cost of carbon is 12 percent higher in a model incorporating natural capital compared to a standard DICE-type model. Furthermore, the social cost of carbon is highly sensitive to the elasticity of substitution in the final output production f unction. Accounting f or t he stochastic nature of productivity further increases the social cost of carbon by 0.13 percent to 39 percent, depending on the inclusion of habit formation. Benmir, Ghassane Mori, Aditya Roman, Josselin Tarsia, Romano natural capital; shadow prices; social cost of carbon; uncertainty 2025-02-04 This paper attempts to provide one of the first population-based causal estimates of the effect of air pollution on suicidal ideation—a key precursor to suicide attempt and completion—among school-age children. We use daily variations in the local wind direction as instruments to address endogeneity in pollution exposure. Matching a unique risk behavior survey of 55, 000 students from 273 schools with comprehensive data on air pollutants and weather conditions according to the exact date and location of schooling, our findings indicate that a 1% decline in daily PM2.5 is associated with a 0.36% reduction in the probability of suicidal ideation. Moreover, the dose-response relationship reveals that the marginal effects increase significantly and non-linearly with elevated concentration of PM2.5. The effect is particularly pronounced among younger, male, students from low-educated families, and students with lower grades. Zhang, Xin Chen, Xi Sun, Hong Yang, Yuanjian suicidal ideation, air pollution, school-age children, risky behaviors, China 2025-06 Understanding the dynamics of renewable energy adoption is essential for designing strategies that accelerate its spread - an urgent priority for advancing climate goals and improving well-being, especially in off-grid regions facing energy poverty. This study introduces a time-series-based analytical framework that quantifies and classifies adoption behaviors of geographic entities within a region. A novel metric, the Adoption over Time Index (ATI), captures cumulative adoption intensity and identifies shifts in adoption trends, improving the ability to distinguish between fundamental adoption paths. By combining ATI with three key features found to be indicative of adoption dynamics, we define a typology of eight distinct paths, including two newly identified trajectories - the decelerating path and the declining moderate path. Applying this framework to a case study of an off-grid Bedouin population in southern Israel reveals that these retreating paths exist in substantial proportions. Identifying such trends is critical for addressing stagnation and preventing backsliding in the diffusion process. The leaping path, by contrast, was nearly absent. We also identify behavioral diversity within both front-runner and trailing groups. Differentiating among these groups can help tailor acceleration strategies. The analysis further reveals significant disparities in adoption levels across the region, with lagging clusters being widespread and overall adoption falling short of the region's potential. Roni Blushtein-Livnon Tal Svoray Itai Ficshhendler Havatzelet Yanel Emir Galilee Michael Dorman 2025-05 Research suggests that the impacts of climate change are felt more acutely by women than men, given their specific socioeconomic roles. It is crucial to recognise the differentiated impacts of climate change on women and the importance of their inclusion in mitigation and adaptation policies, where their voices are often unheard and their concerns remain unaddressed. As international development assistance constricts, crucial lifelines on which many projects that address gender equality rely are disappearing. Winding down such projects can also jeopardise the fragile progress made to address the structural socioeconomic conditions that create gender inequality. Increased gender mainstreaming in national climate plans under the Paris Agreement, for example, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs), can be one way to effectively address gender inequality in climate action. Countries can develop specific climate change mitigation and adaptation plans to address gender inequality. As a new set of updated NDCs will be submitted in 2025 by the countries committed to the Paris Agreement, it is an opportune time to enhance gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs (NDC 3.0) based on concrete policies and actions. This policy brief explores how gender was addressed in the previous round of NDCs (NDC 2.0) of the least developed countries (LDCs) with high gender inequality. A content analysis was conducted to explore how different gendered policy approaches were mentioned in NDC 2.0 of the LDCs. Based on the findings, this policy brief provides key policy insights for better gender mainstreaming in the next round of NDCs. Key policy insights: • Gender mainstreaming needs to be integrated at all policy-making stages and within society, not as an add-on as it is in many NDCs. • Women in LDCs, particularly those at greater risk of climate disasters, should be prioritised, reaching the farthest away and the most affected first in any international support for climate action projects. • Gender mainstreaming in climate change mitigation would be essential to creating oppor-tunities for all genders to participate in the tech-nological transformation to a low-carbon society that pursues gender transformative changes. • Projects with gender transformative plans take time and require long-term consistent funding, and greater focus is needed to choose the right projects to address structural inequalities. • Research is required to develop evidence-based solutions, and often LDCs lack research funds for long-term studies. Research funding support from developed countries can help LDCs to improve research in LDCs and produce evidence to inform policy action. • Gender-disaggregated data needs to be collected and used to design, evaluate, implement and fund targeted transformative policies to tackle gender inequality. Banerjee, Aparajita 2025 This study examines the dual impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on sustainable economic growth in Asia, focusing on its effects on Green GDP, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). Using data from 38 Asian countries spanning 1999 to 2022 and employing a two-step GMM regression analysis, the findings reveal that while FDI positively influences Green GDP growth, it concurrently exacerbates GHG emissions and reduces EPI scores. These results underscore the paradoxical role of FDI in fostering economic growth while posing environmental challenges. The study highlights the importance of robust environmental policies, investment in green technologies, and regional cooperation to align FDI with sustainability goals. It also emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to leverage FDI's economic benefits without compromising environmental integrity. This research contributes to the literature by providing a comprehensive analysis of FDI's environmental and economic implications in the Asian context, offering policy recommendations for achieving sustainable development. Le Ngoc, Anh Heshmati, Almas sustainable economic growth, green economy, foreign direct investment, Asia 2025-05 Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is crucial for effective decision-making in power trading on the spot market. While recent advances in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and pre-trained large language models (LLMs) have inspired the development of numerous time series foundation models (TSFMs) for time series forecasting, their effectiveness in EPF remains uncertain. To address this gap, we benchmark several state-of-the-art pretrained models--Chronos-Bolt, Chronos-T5, TimesFM, Moirai, Time-MoE, and TimeGPT--against established statistical and machine learning (ML) methods for EPF. Using 2024 day-ahead auction (DAA) electricity prices from Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria, and Belgium, we generate daily forecasts with a one-day horizon. Chronos-Bolt and Time-MoE emerge as the strongest among the TSFMs, performing on par with traditional models. However, the biseasonal MSTL model, which captures daily and weekly seasonality, stands out for its consistent performance across countries and evaluation metrics, with no TSFM statistically outperforming it. Timoth\'ee Hornek Amir Sartipi Igor Tchappi Gilbert Fridgen 2025-06 This study explores the impacts of 11 diverse entrepreneurship indicators on green technology innovation (GTI) to determine the optimal environmental regulatory framework that fosters green entrepreneurship. Additionally, the study investigates the impacts of environmental regulations on GTI by utilizing nonlinear panel smooth threshold regression (PSTR) models on data collected from 18 countries from 2002 to 2020. By identifying a critical regulatory threshold of 1.89, the research reveals how varying levels of environmental regulations significantly influence GTI dynamics. The estimation results emphasize that GDP per capita and financial development are critical in fostering GTI. However, stringent environmental regulations can counteract these positive effects. Urbanization and trade openness also positively influence GTI, with environmental regulations complementing their impacts. The transition to a service-oriented industrial structure positively affects GTI. The results underscore the negative impact of entrepreneurship indicators, potentially diverting resources away from GTI. Nonetheless, environmental regulations with stringent enforcement mechanisms can counterbalance the negative impacts of specific entrepreneurship metrics. Among the entrepreneurship indicators analyzed, financing for entrepreneurs, governmental support and policies, and governmental programs exhibit an inverted U-shaped impact pattern, peaking at specific levels of environmental regulation. Khezri, Mohsen entrepreneurial indicators; environmental regulations; GTI; Green Technology Innovation; panel smooth threshold regression; PSTR 2025-07-31 Der zunehmende Einsatz von Elektrobussen verändert die operative Planung von Fahrzeugen und Personal. Aufbauend auf bisherigen Forschungsergebnissen wurde ein Framework zur Modellierung von Umlauf-, Dienst- und Dienstreihenfolgeplanung entwickelt. Es integriert den nichtlinearen Nachladeprozess in die Umlaufplanung (Time-Space-Netzwerk) sowie die Ladeinfrastruktur in die Fahrzeugeinsatzplanung. Zur Bewältigung hoher Rechenzeiten wurden Column-Generation- und heuristische Verfahren ergänzt. Zur Erhöhung der Robustheit wurden Verspätungsmodelle, prädiktive Fahrzeitschätzungen und variable Flottengrößen untersucht. Ein wesentliches Ergebnis: Die Integration von Verspätungen erhöht nicht die Modellkomplexität. Prädiktive Fahrzeiten verbessern die Umlaufstabilität deutlich. Die variable Fahrzeuganzahl im Modell unterstützt die zentrale Frage: Wie viele E-Busse werden zur Bedarfsdeckung benötigt? Xie, Lin Kliewer, Natalia 2025 Esta Nota 2 de la serie estima el costo fiscal del mayor precio del gas natural en las condiciones de escasez de oferta doméstica y las crecientes necesidades de importación. El aumento del gas importado, cuyo precio es significativamente mayor, plantea retos como el incremento de tarifas para usuarios regulados (hasta 91.5% en algunos escenarios). Se enfatiza que se parte de un esquema de subsidios insostenible e inconsistente con la reducción de la pobreza en Colombia: entre 2005 y 2024, los subsidios para estratos 1 y 2 crecieron un 642%, mientras que las contribuciones de estratos 5 y 6 solo aumentaron un 157%, generando un déficit fiscal que pasó de COP $ 0.17 billones a COP $ 1.25 billones. La Asociación Colombiana de Gas Natural, NATURGAS, estima que se requieren 1.3 billones de pesos del Presupuesto General de la Nación (PGN) para 2025 y 1.4 billones para 2026, con el propósito de cubrir el déficit generado por los subsidios otorgados a los hogares de estratos 1 y 2. Si la mitad de la oferta proviniera de gas importado, la carga fiscal empeoraría y podría incrementarse en COP $ 0.36 billones anuales. En un escenario en el que la canasta esté compuesta exclusivamente por gas importado, los aumentos de esta carga fiscal podrían ser de COP $ 0.72 billones anuales, lo que subraya la necesidad de abordar el esquema de los subsidios y el declive de la oferta nacional. Cabrales, Sergio Benavides, Juan Gas; Gas Natural; Costo Fiscal; Subsidios; Importaciones; Oferta y Demanda; Precios de Gas Natural; Colombia 2025-06-12 Negative oil supply shocks since the 1980s have increased German inflation and reduced aggregate economic activity. Using 45 years of high-frequency German administrative data, we find that these shocks disproportionally harm low-income individuals: their earnings growth falls by two percentage points two years after a 10-percent exogenous oil price rise, while high-income individuals are largely unaffected. Job-finding probabilities for low-income workers also decline significantly. This contrasts with the distributional effects of monetary policy shocks, which, while also stronger at the bottom, primarily impact job-separation probabilities. To understand the role of monetary policy in shaping these outcomes, we analyze counterfactual scenarios of policy non-response. Because the actual policy response to oil shocks involves an initial rate rise followed by a fall, a fully anticipated non-response (McKay-Wolf, 2023) leaves the oil shock's aggregate and distributional effects little changed. When monetary policy repeatedly surprises by not reacting (Sims-Zha, 2006), in contrast, the implied initial monetary loosening dominates, boosting activity, inflation, and particularly employment prospects for low-income individuals. Broer, Tobias Kramer, John Mitman, Kurt monetary policy, inequality, Oil shocks, counterfactual 2025-06 Focusing on a cross-border perspective, this paper identifies four key binding constraints that hinder firms’ ability to innovate and scale up within the EU single market—fragmented regulations, inefficient financial intermediation, limited labor mobility, and fragmented energy market. To address these constraints and facilitate firms’ cross border scale up, investment and innovation, the paper proposes key action areas for deepening the integration of the single market, including lowering regulatory fragmentation, advancing the capital markets union, enhancing labor mobility within the EU, and integrating the EU energy market. Through illustrative scenarios, the paper highlights that a few actionable steps along these dimensions could lead off the process of deeper integration and deliver a meaningful initial payoff by increasing the EU GDP level relative to baseline by around 3 percent over 10 years—a sizable improvement considering that the EU potential growth is projected to be just above 1 percent annually over this horizon. Mr. Nathaniel G Arnold Allan Dizioli Alexandra Fotiou Jan-Martin Frie Ms. Burcu Hacibedel Tara Iyer Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin Mr. Malhar S Nabar Mr. Hui Tong Mr. Frederik G Toscani single market; 28th regime; productivity; scale up; capital markets union 2025-06-13 Over the past decades, Latin America and the Caribbean have experienced a significant increase in natural disasters, posing significant threats to infrastructure and economic activity, particularly in regions with poor infrastructure. Understanding the patterns in recovery time after disasters is key to designing accurate responses to natural hazards. In this paper, we develop a methodological approach and use Hurricane Odile, which struck Baja California Sur, Mexico, in September 2014, as a case study to understand the recovery paths following such disasters. We rely on nighttime lights data to capture the initial impact and eventual recovery of electricity service and economic activity in the area of impact of the hurricane. We find that the average luminosity dropped to 78% of pre-hurricane levels immediately after the event and did not fully recover within a year. Impacts are heterogeneous, with localities such as Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo experiencing more severe impacts and slower recovery compared to La Paz, which recovered faster. These results suggest that disaster evaluation, mitigation policies, and preventive measures against disaster impacts should be tailored to local realities. Bagnoli, Lisa Delgado, Lucía Luza, Jerónimo Mitnik, Oscar A. Pasman, Clara Serebrisky, Tomás resilience, natural disasters, electricity service, economic activity recovery, nighttime light, hurricane, Mexico 2025-05 This study investigates how team collaboration stability influences the success of mega construction projects in electric vehicle manufacturing enterprises, with human-AI integration as a moderating variable. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) with data from 187 project teams across China's electric vehicle sector, results indicate that team collaboration stability significantly enhances project success. The moderating effect of human-AI integration strengthens this relationship, suggesting that enterprises implementing advanced human-AI collaborative systems achieve superior project outcomes when team stability is maintained. These findings contribute to both team collaboration theory and provide practical implications for mega project management in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle industry. Jun Cui 2025-06 This paper investigates the impact of environmental regulations on inward foreign direct investment (FDI) using a novel index that distinguishes between the implementation and enforcement of environmental policy across 111 countries from 2001 to 2018. Leveraging bi- lateral FDI data and a structural gravity model, we find robust evidence of a Pollution Haven Effect: stricter environmental regulations in host countries are associated with lower inward FDI. The effect is more pronounced in emerging markets and in environments with higher corruption. Importantly, we show that FDI responds more strongly to policy implementation, capturing formal regulatory commitment, than to enforcement, measured as deviations be- tween predicted and actual emissions. In addition, bilateral FDI patterns are shaped by the environmental stringency gap between source and host countries, consistent with regulatory arbitrage behavior. Raphaël Chiappini Enea Gerard Environmental regulation, foreign direct investment, Pollution Haven Hypothesis 2025 This paper explores how female political leaders impact environmental outcomes and climate change policy actions using data from mixed-gender mayoral races in Brazil. Using a Regression Discontinuity design, we find that, compared to male mayors, female mayors significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This effect is driven by a reduction in emissions intensity (CO2e/GDP) in the Land Use sector, without changes in municipal economic activity. Part of the reduction in emissions in the Land Use sector is attributable to a decline in deforestation. We examine potential mechanisms that could explain the positive environmental impact of narrowly electing a female mayor over a male counterpart and find that in Amazon municipalities, female elected mayors allocate more space to the environment in their government proposals and are more likely to invest in environmental initiatives. Differences in the enforcement of environmental regulations do not explain the results. Berniell, Inés Marchionni, Mariana Pedrazzi, Julián Viollaz, Mariana Brazil, Amazon, mayoral elections, climate change, gender, Latin America 2025-05 Intégration des énergies renouvelables au bâtiment de l'IUT de Paris Pajol : Vers une autonomie énergétique durable Claude Nzoundja Fapi Yacine Boufkhad Steeve Reisberg Laurent Royon Xiaofeng Guo 2025-03-26 Economic researchers and forecasters face the difficult task of differentiating the effects of tariffs on consumer prices from the effects of other factors—such as inflation expectations, supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and energy prices—which may influence prices independently. The methods available for this task in the economics literature, however, are not suitable for assessing tariffs' effects on consumer prices in real time. Robert Minton Mariano A. Somale 2025-05-09 This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan. Kirui, Oliver K. Ahmed, Mosab Raouf, Mariam Abushama, Hala Siddig, Khalid energy policies; food security; health; households; socioeconomics; water; water policies; Sudan; Africa; Northern Africa 2025-05-20