Objective: An increase in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) prevalence has been demonstrated across many countries with adoption of the International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) diagnostic criteria. Here, we determine the cumulative incidence of abnormal glucose tolerance among women with previous GDM, and identify clinical risk factors predicting this.

Design: Two hundred and seventy women with previous IADPSG-defined GDM were prospectively followed up for 5years (mean 2.6) post-index pregnancy, and compared with 388 women with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) in pregnancy.

Methods: Cumulative incidence of abnormal glucose tolerance (using American Diabetes Association criteria for impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance and diabetes) was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method of survival analysis. Cox regression models were constructed to test for factors predicting abnormal glucose tolerance.

Results: Twenty-six percent of women with previous GDM had abnormal glucose tolerance vs 4% with NGT, with the log-rank test demonstrating significantly different survival curves (P<0.001). Women meeting IADPSG, but not the World Health Organization (WHO) 1999 criteria, had a lower cumulative incidence than women meeting both sets of criteria, both in the early post-partum period (4.2% vs 21.7%, P<0.001) and at longer-term follow-up (13.7% vs 32.6%, P<0.001). Predictive factors were glucose levels on the pregnancy oral glucose tolerance test, family history of diabetes, gestational week at testing, and BMI at follow-up.

Conclusions: The proportion of women developing abnormal glucose tolerance remains high among those with IADPSG-defined GDM. This demonstrates the need for continued close follow-up, although the optimal frequency and method needs further study.