Monthly Outlook

High pressure has been overhead the UK in recent days, leading to cold and frosty mornings, patchy dense fog, and some dry, sunny days.
As this high pressure area slips eastwards during the next few days, much milder air will push north from Spain.
Mid-November will continue to be influenced by winds from the south-west, keeping things milder than average.
Wettest and windiest in the north-west and drier than average over the southern and eastern half of the UK.
Towards late November and into early December, stronger winds and heavy rain will sweep across all parts of the UK.
Mainly mild, but with some short-lived cold north-westerly plunges.

After another chilly night, with some localised frost and patchy dense fog to start the day, Saturday 7th November will be dry for many parts of the UK, with high pressure leading to further sunshine.
Cloud becoming more extensive across Wales as well as the southern and western half of England as the day progresses.
There will be showery bursts of rain edging northwards into Devon, Cornwall and south Wales.
Very mild in southern England and west Wales, with temperatures reaching 15C or 16C here.

During Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, further bands of cloud and showery rain will spread northwards and a bit further eastwards across the UK.
Some locally heavy pulses at times and the low risk of a crack of thunder.
This is most likely over south-west England. Lowest rainfall amounts and best chance of sunny spells will be over eastern and north-eastern areas of the UK.
Very mild by day and night, with maximum temperatures reaching 17C, perhaps 18C.

During the middle and end of this week, a similar weather pattern will dominate, with a huge area of high pressure over continental Europe.
This will prevent Atlantic fronts from pushing eastwards across the UK.
Instead they will stall over western areas, with western and south-western Scotland predicted to see the highest totals.
Brisk winds on a few days, more especially over Scotland.
Much drier and less windy over central and eastern England. Mild, with winds from the south and south-west.

The most likely outcome during this week is for a huge area of high pressure to remain situated across much of continental Europe.
The UK will once again be located on the milder western side of this high pressure ridge.
Atlantic fronts running into western and northern fringes of the UK before stalling. Milder than average conditions will continue, with the risk of frost quite low, even in Scotland.
A distinct north-west to south-east split in rainfall totals and wind speeds.
We will see the south and east again experiencing less rainfall and wind than would typically occur in mid-November.
The reverse is likely to be the case over western Scotland.

However, during the first half of the week, there is a slight chance that high pressure extends its influence further west, leading to a calmer & drier period of weather, even over west Wales and western Scotland.
Winds would turn south-easterly over southern and eastern parts of England, drawing in drier air from the near continent.
While this drier air would lead to more sunshine and less cloud cover by day, overnight temperatures would fall sharply, with some frost expected.
Towards the end of this week, there is more of a risk that high pressure declines quite quickly over the near continent and low pressure areas start to intensify over the north Atlantic and near Scotland.
Westerly winds strengthening widely over the UK, with periods of heavy rain making their presence felt across all parts.
Such a scenario is more likely during the final week in November, than during the latter half of this week.

In some of our recent updates, we have been mentioning the prospect of some cold northerly plunges occurring as we get to late November.
With a La Nina event ongoing in the Pacific (a vast area of cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean), then the UK can sometimes see an increase in the frequency of cold northerly winds during November.

However, unusual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature patterns are not the only influence on the UK's weather in late autumn.
In some previous years, an entrenched La Nina pattern fails to coincide with any sustained pre-Christmas cold weather over the UK.
2020 could be another of these years.

This two week period should see a return to brisk westerly winds and fast moving frontal systems racing across the UK, with short-lived periods of drier, brighter and sunnier weather between them.
Wettest over western areas, especially western Scotland.
Some very strong winds are possible on a few days, perhaps leading to some disruption.
We saw such events during December 2011, 2013 and 1999, all of which featured a La Nina event over the Pacific.

Although it will often be quite mild, there's good evidence that the low pressure track will sometimes plunge south of the UK, across France and the Alps.
This will introduce north-westerly winds for a couple of days, leading to colder weather.
There will be night frosts and scattered sleet, hail and even a few snow showers.
These cold spells should be fairly short-lived, with most snow only settling over the hills and mountains in the north.
Milder west or south-westerly winds will be more frequent.

We will look in more detail at the second half of November and start of December and assess the risk of there being some widespread strong winds and heavy rainfall during this time.