en Erin Ferris, Amy Rose, and Manjola Tase

We first construct a novel indicator of reserve ampleness based on data on interbank payments over the Fedwire Funds Service: the share of reserves to Fedwire payments as a proxy for the demand for reserves for payment purposes. We then explore the relationship between this indicator and the price of reserves, the spread between the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) and interest on reserves (IORB), to identify structural breaks and back out the minimum level of ample reserves as a share of Fedwire payments and the corresponding EFFR - IORB spread. We find that fed funds trading slightly below the interest on reserves and reserves at about 65 percent of Fedwire payments are consistent with minimum level of ample reserves.]]> FEDS Notes Fariha Kamal

U.S. trade policy shifted dramatically in 2025—the average effective tariff rate increased from 2.3 percent in 2024 to 13.1 percent as of June 13, 2025. This dramatic rise in tariffs reflects increases for a wide variety of products across all trading partners. Along with widespread tariff increases, however, U.S. importers now face additional compliance costs to conform with increasingly complex trade regulations and reporting obligations.]]> FEDS Notes Carol Bertaut, Bastian von Beschwitz, and Stephanie Curcuru

For most of the last century, the preeminent role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy has been supported by the size and strength of the U.S. economy, its stability and openness to trade and capital flows, and strong property rights and the rule of law. As a result, the depth and liquidity of U.S. financial markets is unmatched, and there is a large supply of extremely safe dollar-denominated assets.]]> FEDS Notes Ricardo Duque Gabriel and Julianna Sterling

This paper examines the shifting dynamics in bank funding of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) from 1980 to 2024. We document three key facts. First, bank funding to NBFIs has been relatively stable, accounting for, on average, 3.5% of total NBFIs liabilities. Second, since 2012, on-balance-sheet funding by banks has declined sharply, falling from 4.7% to 2.5% of total NBFIs liabilities. Third, using Y-14 data, we find that credit lines extended to NBFIs have increased from 0.7% to 1.0% of total NBFIs liabilities, highlighting a structural shift in how banks engage with NBFIs. While reducing on-balance-sheet exposure to NBFIs might enhance financial stability, the growing reliance on credit lines, now accounting for approximately 3% of GDP, has increasingly introduced systemic vulnerabilities that can be amplified during periods of financial stress.]]> FEDS Notes Sam Hempel, R. Jay Kahn, and Julia Shephard

The U.S. repurchase agreement (repo) market is one of the world's most important financial markets, yet it remains surprisingly opaque. Existing estimates of the size of this market often rely on data from either a subset of participants or of market segments.]]> FEDS Notes Juan M. Londono, Sai Ma, and Ilknur Zer

Over the past five years, the COVID-19 pandemic, supply chain disruptions, concerns about trade policies and their implications for the global trading network, military conflicts, and broader geopolitical tensions have sharply heightened risk and uncertainty. U.S. and global Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) reached unprecedented levels in April 2025, mostly driven by uncertainty about trade policies (Figure 1).]]> FEDS Notes

Credit unions provide a significant share—approximately 14 percent—of consumer debt. As of 2025:Q1, consumer credit provided by credit unions was measured at over $716 billion in the G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," a Principal Federal Economic Indicator produced by the Federal Reserve Board.]]> FEDS Notes

The G.19 "Consumer Credit" Statistical Release reports outstanding credit extended to individuals, excluding loans secured by real estate, across multiple types of lenders that include depository institutions, finance companies, credit unions, federal government, nonprofit and educational institutions, and nonfinancial business. Starting with the May 2025 G.19, released on July 8, 2025, the estimates for the nonfinancial business sector are decommissioned and removed from the G.19.]]> FEDS Notes Eva Van Leemput, and David Yu

In recent years, protectionist trade policies have gained momentum globally, reversing decades of increasing globalization. This shift is driven by growing skepticism about the benefits of free trade, national security concerns, geopolitical considerations, and efforts to enhance economic resilience in the wake of COVID-19.]]> FEDS Notes Byoung Hwa Hwang

The consumer payments landscape is rapidly evolving. In the United States, the growth of instant payments and innovations such as open banking are among the many developments shaping today's consumer payment behaviors.]]> FEDS Notes Diego Vilán

It has been extensively documented that medium and low-income countries tend to experience substantially more volatile business cycles than their more developed counterparts. Given their reliance on commodities, emerging economies are highly exposed to fluctuations in their terms of trade (the price of a country's export prices relative to its import prices). This note seeks to document and quantify the effects of time-varying uncertainty of commodity terms of trade on aggregate economic activity in developing countries.]]> FEDS Notes Benjamin S. Kay and Marco Migueis

Ex-ante cost-benefit analyses and other impact assessments are now a standard part of the rulemaking process. Yet some important effects of regulation are difficult—or impossible—to assess before a rule takes effect. In such cases, ex-post (or retrospective) evaluation, conducted after a rule is in effect, offers an opportunity to measure real-world outcomes that could not reliably be predicted in advance.]]> FEDS Notes Sarena Goodman and Eva Ma

Student loan debt is the second-largest liability on U.S. household balance sheets, next after mortgages (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2025). While the availability of student loans can open educational opportunities that might not have otherwise existed, many borrowers struggle with repayment and may see their credit records damaged or wages garnished if they fall behind.]]> FEDS Notes William L. Barcelona, Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, Jasper J. Hoek, and Eva Van Leemput

Chinese authorities recently announced a growth target of "around 5 percent" for 2025, the same as their 2024 target. Five percent is about half the pace of growth that China sustained from the 1980s to the early 2010s, but it is nonetheless quite high for an economy flirting with deflation and mired in a years-long property bust.]]> FEDS Notes Juan M. Morelli, and Jessie Jiaxu Wang

In this note, we introduce a factor asset pricing model to analyze risk-adjusted returns on bank stocks. Given their high-frequency availability, bank stock returns offer a valuable lens into the risk exposures and dynamics of the banking sector.]]> FEDS Notes