Thai-Cambodian Border Clashes Help Revive Hun Sen’s Power

Although he stepped down as prime minister and de facto dictator in 2023, after more than three decades running Cambodia with an iron hand, Hun Sen has remained the most powerful actor in the country.  He still, according to virtually every Cambodian politician and analyst, remains more powerful than the current prime minister, Hun Manet, the son of Hun Sen. Hun Manet was basically gifted the position with no real chance for opposition.

And Hun Sen has not been shy about stating that, in a serious national crisis, he would basically take over again. He told the public that “if my son’s in danger, I’ll return to be prime minister.” He has also said that “if my son fails to meet expectations… I would re-assume my role as prime minister.”

Hun Sen has clearly grabbed onto the current Thai-Cambodian border dispute as a way to remain relevant in Cambodian and regional politics and to boost his power within Cambodia. He, not his son, has been the most visible Cambodian actor regarding the dispute, and he has been at the center of sparking nationalism in Cambodia, leading the few bilateral negotiations that have taken place, and taking other steps to show he is still the top boss.

The two countries have clashed repeatedly, over the years, about this disputed border area; the disputed claimed territory also contains a stunning 11th-century Hindu temple, Preah Vihear, claimed by both neighbors. The two sides also often use the dispute to spark domestic nationalism. Indeed, I published an article on how during the 2011-2013 crisis, Hun Sen stirred up nationalist fervor over the temple to garner political support at a time when he faced some real challenges from opposition parties.

In recent months, tensions over the border have grown more and more severe. On May 28, Thai forces apparently killed a Cambodian, and the tension rose further from there. Now, it has led to a situation where more than ten soldiers are dying on some days, artillery is being used, and tens of thousands of people—Thai and Cambodian—are displaced.  There are bellicose statements that this could become a real “war,” though any larger conflict would decimate the Cambodian military. (President Donald Trump has claimed he has negotiated a ceasefire, but it is unclear if that ceasefire is actually happening.)

The conflict at the border has provided Hun Sen an opportunity to more closely reassert himself in politics by engaging in negotiations, portraying himself as the top defender against Thailand, making public visits to the area of dispute, and issuing nationalistic statements in speeches, videos, and on social media.

After May 28, Hun Sen went fully on the political offensive, capitalizing on the dispute just as he had done during prior conflicts, especially one over the temple itself. On May 28, he took to social media, depicting himself and Cambodia as peacemakers on his Facebook page:

“I strongly condemn any individual, entity, or authority that made the decision to carry out such an act of aggression, which resembles the incursions that occurred between 2008 and 2011 at the Preah Vihear temple. I do not wish to see any armed conflict break out, but I fully support the...decision to deploy troops…as a means of preparing for defense.”

On June 26, Hun Sen went to Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey province and met with Cambodian forces. He continued to argue that Cambodia was not the belligerent. “We came here to defend our territory, not to seize anyone else's land. We do not want to fight, but we are forced to. This fight is both for self-defense and to strike back,” he told the troops, according to the Phnom Penh Post.  While there, Hun Sen also said that: “I am here to check on the well-being of the troops, civil servants and displaced citizens in Oddar Meanchey and Preah Vihear provinces, offer encouragement and provide aid to the armed forces that are protecting our nation and territory.”

Hun Sen is so involved in this conflict for several possible reasons. First, as I have discussed, it puts him back at the center of politics and Cambodians’ minds, which he clearly craves.

Second, according to Thanachate Wisaijorn, Head of the Department of Government at Ubon Ratchathani University in Thailand, the former Cambodian leader is trying to deflect attention from problematic domestic issues like “economic troubles and US trade sanctions” and “call-center scams and transnational crime” proliferating in Cambodia (and usually tolerated by the government)  by inciting bilateral tensions and making self-aggrandizing statements.

Perhaps most importantly, Hun Sen is using the conflict and its impact on Thai domestic politics to sever his longstanding ties with Thailand’s Shinawatra political dynasty. He may have chosen to forsake the Shinawatras because dynasty head Thaksin Shinawatra proposed economic plans in recent years that might have hurt Cambodia’s economy. Or Hun Sen may have realized the Shinawatras were reeling, and it would be better for him and Cambodia to dump them now before they are domestically crushed, as a way of signaling to Thailand that Cambodia will work instead with a military-dominated Thai parliament.  

To dump the Shinawatras, Hun Sen first (almost surely) leaked a phone conversation between himself and then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Hun Sen denied releasing the recording but then ended up posting the 17-minute call on his Facebook page. The conversation exposed Paetongtarn criticizing the Thai military and generally looking weak on national security, and this weakness ultimately led to her ouster as prime minister.

Hun Sen then began savaging the Shinawatras on social media too. For instance, in a Facebook post on July 20,  Hun Sen belittled Thaksin and his daughter Paetongtarn, calling them arrogant, immoral, unprofessional, and criminals. Thaksin hit back and claimed that Hun Sen gave the orders to use high-tech weaponry, and then Hun Sen wrote on Facebook that “I am not running to anywhere.”

Hun Sen even seemed at one point to be trying to blackmail the Shinawatras, according to an astute analysis by leading Thai Substack writer (and PhD candidate) Ken Lohatepanont. Hun Sen released on social media photos from the past of Paetongtarn and Thaksin’s lavish rooms in Hun Sen’s mansion, in which they were portrayed as toadies to Cambodia. As Ken further notes, “Hun Sen’s post made it clear that he has a steady drip-drip-drip of content ready to go. In a sense, it feels like Hun Sen — a man of keen political cunning who has survived for decades in cut-throat Cambodian politics to become Asia’s longest-serving leader — is blackmailing top leaders in the Thai government. Hun Sen appears to be signaling to the Shinawatras that he has all this information and that he can put this out for the world to see at any moment.”

It is also theoretically possible that Hun Sen’s outspoken nationalism and publicly tough stances on Thailand are ways of shoring up his son’s power by rallying the Cambodian public around both men.

However, Hun Sen does not seem particularly happy with Hun Manet’s approach to the crisis, and has largely sidelined his son.  As Hun Sen said on July 26, 2023, just before his son became prime minister, he would retake power if his son could not handle the position in a time of crisis. Hun Sen is now following through on that promise.