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The Welfare and Market Effects of Delays in Humanitarian Assistance

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  • Sterc, Olivier

Abstract

Delays in aid delivery are common, yet their impacts on households and markets remain theoretically ambiguous and empirically understudied. The Permanent Income Hypothesis predicts consumption smoothing, while models with financial constraints or present bias predict sharp consumption declines. We test these pre¬dictions using high-frequency data and random interview timing in a large refugee camp in Kenya. While households smooth consumption under regular aid cycles, delays reduce food consumption and well-being, with downstream effects on in-tertemporal preferences and cognitive function. Local prices respond to aid timing, and credit access mitigates impacts, but at a 17% premium. Results support credit constraint models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sterc, Olivier, 2025. "The Welfare and Market Effects of Delays in Humanitarian Assistance," CSAE Working Paper Series 2025-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2025-08
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:837a25d0-941b-4740-b1de-8186b9eacc6f
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash transfers; Consumption smoothing; Permanent Income Hypothesis; Humanitarian assistance; Delays;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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