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International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions

Author

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  • Fabio Ghironi
  • Daisoon Kim
  • G. Kemal Ozhan

Abstract

We develop a framework combining dynamic, intertemporal choices of general-equilibrium macro models with microfoundations of modern trade theory to study sanctions. In a two-country, two-sector setup, Home holds a comparative advantage in producing differentiated consumption goods via heterogeneous firms with endogenous entry, while Foreign in homogeneous intermediate goods from a fixed number of firms. Sanctions include trade bans and financial restrictions excluding particular Foreign agents from markets. In our model, sanctions reallocate resources across and within countries, affecting production, exchange rates, and welfare, with larger welfare losses when targeting sectors of comparative disadvantage. Focusing only on long-run outcomes, overlooking initial dynamics, inaccurately assesses welfare impacts. Sanctions weaken international comovement and fragment markets but leave business cycles intact.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Ghironi & Daisoon Kim & G. Kemal Ozhan, 2024. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Sanctions," NBER Working Papers 32188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32188
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    Cited by:

    1. Erdal Yalcin & Gabriel Felbermayr & Heider Kariem & Aleksandra Kirilakha & Kwon Ohyun & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto Yotov, 2024. "The Global Sanctions Data Base - Release 4: The Heterogeneous Effects of the Sanctions on Russia," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-8, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    2. Bondarenko, Yevheniia & Lewis, Vivien & Rottner, Matthias & Schüler, Yves, 2024. "Geopolitical risk perceptions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Funke, Michael & Wende, Adrian, 2025. "The limited effectiveness of sanctions on Russia: Modeling loopholes and workarounds," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2025, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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