Fig. 5: Example of methodological calculation of the warming-related increase in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) prevalence for the UK.

a The difference in temperature for a given year (here 2023—black solid line) was compared to the 1950–1990 historical average temperature (dashed red line). b This difference in temperature (blue arrow) was used to calculate the change in the risk of nightly OSA between current vs. historical average temperature, for a particular day. This daily change was summed over the year and used to calculate the associated wellbeing and workplace productivity burden (see text for further details). Figure 5b represents the cumulative exposure–response (and 95%CI in shaded area) between ambient temperature and nightly OSA in the UK. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.