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Ian Harnett

  • Monday, 4 August, 2025
    Markets InsightTrump tariffs
    Lessons from the 1920s and 30s on tariffs and markets

    Investors today might be too complacent about the risks to earnings from slower growth and higher inflation

    Shipping containers stacked at the Port of Long Beach, California
  • Friday, 4 April, 2025
    Markets InsightMarkets
    How ‘weaponised trade’ could lead to ‘weaponised capital’

    As international structures that promoted free trade are unwound, there is a rising risk of a return to capital controls

    A trader runs across the floor of the New York Stock Exchange as it opens on the morning after US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff announcement
  • Monday, 25 November, 2024
    Markets InsightCentral banks
    It’s prices stupid: how inflation targeting has failed electorates

    It may well be time for governments and central banks to revisit their monetary policy mandates.

    A customer pushes a shopping trolley outside a Home Depot store in Palo Alto, California
  • Monday, 3 April, 2023
    Markets InsightMarkets
    The financial turmoil is not over

    If 2022 was about the repricing of capital, 2023 is likely to be about the reduction in the quantity of it

    A house for sale in Orlando, Florida, US
  • Thursday, 1 September, 2022
    Markets InsightUS economy
    Why housing is the key to the next Fed pivot

    The US faces a perfect storm of rising financing costs, squeezed demand and increased supply

    A home under construction in Buda, Texas
  • Wednesday, 22 June, 2022
    Equity valuation
    The big risk to equities now is earnings, not valuations

    Investors have probably seen only the first phase of this bear market in stocks

    The Frankfurt stock exchange’s sculpture of a bear in front of a complex chart on price and earnings
  • Tuesday, 15 June, 2021
    Markets InsightMarkets
    The coming regime shift towards capital-heavy companies

    Structural shifts will require more investment in technologies and supply chains

    The Tesla Model Y under construction
  • Thursday, 18 February, 2021
    Markets InsightMarkets
    Investors also need to ‘act big’ as Yellen signals regime change

    Expansive fiscal and monetary policies may see 1980s-style Japanese melt-up and meltdown

  • Thursday, 10 December, 2020
    Markets InsightEquities
    The valuation warning signs for stock markets

    Current investor complacency about global equities might soon be tested

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