Introduction

The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) is increasing in the US, with high rates being diagnosed in the emergency department (ED)1,2,3,4. The rates of STIs are especially high among teenagers and young adults, although the rates of STIs are also increasing in older adults1,2,3,4,5,6. The signs, symptoms, and laboratory findings of gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomonas can overlap with other genitourinary pathology, such as urinary tract infections, which may lead to increased difficulty in accurately diagnosing STIs7,8,9. In the acute care setting, where the results of STI testing is not immediately available, providers’ decision to treat for STIs is often based on clinical history, symptomatology, and treatment guidelines alone1.

Seasonal variation of human sexuality, including number of sexual encounters, has been reported in the literature, with adult and adolescent sexual activity being higher in the warmer months and lower in the colder months10,11,12. Adolescent sexual activity has shown a peak in April and is lowest from December through February12. Condom use and first coitus are highest in summer12,13,14,15. Plasma testosterone levels in males, which may correlate with increased sexual behaviors, are highest in late summer and fall11,16. Unwanted or violent sexual activity, including rape, has been most commonly reported in the summer or early fall and less frequently observed in the winter17,18,19,20,21,22,23. Among US college students, unwanted sexual activity was highest in the fall and during fall break23. Lastly, STIs and pelvic inflammatory disease diagnoses appear to peak in the summer and fall24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34.

Some US holidays (e.g., Mardi Gras, New Year’s Eve, and St. Patrick’s Day) are associated with alcohol consumption, some are associated with romance (e.g., Valentine’s Day and Sweetest Day), and others have a more religious significance (e.g., Christmas and Easter). Considering that increased sexual activity may occur during certain times of the year, particularly around major holidays when social norms suggest more free time for such activities, we aimed to explore whether there may be a correlation with STIs. We examined all US federally recognized holidays as well as major social and religious events. We hypothesized that different US holidays and major calendar events are associated with differing risks of acquiring an STI. Therefore, the objective of our study was to determine if these holidays, events, and patient birthdays were associated with an increased risk of positive testing for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomonas.

Methods

Study design and setting

The biostatistics data retrieval team extracted patient encounter data at our institution’s Midwest sites who had research authorization, were between 12 and 120 years of age, had a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) for Neisseria gonorrhea, Chlamydia trachomatis, or Trichomonas vaginalis, or had a rapid antigen or positive urine microscopy for Trichomonas vaginalis performed. Patients were considered infected with an STI if any test for gonorrhea, chlamydia, or trichomonas was positive. All encounters occurred between July 13, 2006, and September 23, 2023. For encounters occurring before 2015, we recategorized them as before 2015. Our dataset excluded pregnant individuals. We considered an STI to be associated with a holiday if the patient tested positive for the infection within the pathogen’s incubation period plus two weeks. We used 2–21 days after the holiday for gonorrhea, 7–35 days for chlamydia, and 5–42 days for trichomonas35,36,37. The Mayo Clinic Institutional Review Board at our institution approved this study. All research in this study was performed in accordance with relevant guidelines and regulations as stipulated by the aforementioned review board.

Statistical analysis

We summarized continuous variables using mean and standard deviation (SD), and categorical variables using frequency and percentage. Univariate associations of variables between the positive and negative STI groups were performed using Linear Model ANOVA for continuous variables and χ2 tests for categorical variables. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to assess the relationship between each STI and individual holiday while controlling for age, sex, race, ethnicity, marital status, year of encounter, and weekend. The majority of these covariates were selected a priori given clinical data informed by the literature38. Weekend was defined as any testing occurring on a Saturday or Sunday. For each STI, a sensitivity analysis was performed that selected each patient’s first encounter to confirm that the results were similar to the models with all records that included multiple encounters per patient. All analysis was performed using R 4.0.3 (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). The R package arsenal was used to generate summary tables (Heinzen E, Sinnwell J, Atkinson E, Gunderson T, Dougherty G (2024). _arsenal: An Arsenal of ‘R’ Functions for Large-Scale Statistical Summaries_. R package version 3.6.4.0000). All tests were 2-sided, and a P value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

Table 1 provides a summary of patient characteristics. Age, race, ethnicity, gender, marital status, day of the week, and type of encounter (emergency vs. outpatient) were all significantly associated with testing positive for an STI. In Table 1, ‘Any STI’ was defined as positive if any of the 3 tests that a patient may have had for an STI (gonorrhea, chlamydia, or trichomonas) resulted in a positive test. Our analysis included 153,344 encounters.

Table 1 Summary of patient encounters.

Gonorrhea

Among those tested for gonorrhea, 144,998 (99%) were negative and 1,560 (1%) were positive (Table 2). Within our dataset, 6,786 encounters had no gonorrhea testing. There were 139,481 encounters with non-missing covariates included in the regression analyses. The following covariates were found to be significantly associated with a positive gonorrhea test: age ≥ 18 years of age (with the exception of age categories of 21–24 and ≥ 45), male gender (compared to female), Black/African American (compared to White), being single, and weekend visit (Table 3). Mardi Gras was associated with a lower risk (OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.55–0.93, p = 0.015), while Memorial Day was associated with a higher risk of a positive gonorrhea test (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.12–1.67, p = 0.002) (Table 4).

Table 2 Overall STI results.
Table 3 Multivariate model using a positive gonorrhea test and all variables included as covariates (n = 139,481).
Table 4 Multivariate models using each holiday as a predictor and including all variables included as covariates as it relates to a positive gonorrhea test.

Chlamydia

Among those tested for chlamydia, 145,271 (95%) were negative, and 7,762 (5%) were positive (Table 2). Within our dataset, 311 encounters had no chlamydia testing. There were 145,612 encounters with non-missing covariates included in the regression analyses. The following covariates were found to be significantly associated with a positive chlamydia test: age 18 to 20 years of age, male gender (compared to female), Black/African American and Other race (compared to White), being Hispanic or Latino, being single, and weekend visit (Table 5). The patient’s birthday (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.01–1.2, p = 0.02) was associated with an increased risk of a positive chlamydia test (Table 6).

Table 5 Multivariate model using a positive chlamydia test and all variables included as covariates (n = 145,612).
Table 6 Multivariate models using each holiday as a predictor and including all variables included as covariates as it relates to a positive chlamydia test.

Trichomonas

Among those tested for trichomonas, 39,664 (96%) were negative, and 1,537 (4%) were positive (Table 2). Within our dataset, 112,143 encounters had no trichomonas testing. There were 39,405 encounters with non-missing covariates included in the regression analyses. The following covariates were found to be significantly associated with a positive trichomonas test: older age (except for 18–20 years), male gender (compared to female), Black/African American (compared to White), being non-Hispanic, being single, and weekend visit (Table 7). National Girlfriend’s Day (OR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.64–0.92, p = 0.005) was associated with a decreased risk of a positive trichomonas test (Table 8).

Table 7 Multivariate model using a positive Trichomonas test and all variables included as covariates (n = 39,405).
Table 8 Multivariate models using each holiday as a predictor and including all variables included as covariates as it relates a positive Trichomonas test.

Discussion

We did not find a clear association between major US holidays and being diagnosed with STIs. Our findings are consistent with an older study on STI testing from the ED39. While there may be a seasonal variation in STIs, an association with significant events or calendar holidays remains unclear. During Christmas, for example, sexual activity and condom purchases are said to be increased, but there is no clear associated peak in STIs during this same time24,27,30,40. An Australian study showed that sexual health clinic visits increased for approximately five days after holidays and festivals41. Conversely, no increased STI diagnosis prevalence was observed after Carnival in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil42. Travel overseas and holiday vacations may be associated with increased sexual activity and increased risk for STIs43]– [44. In the US, college students report risky sexual behavior (including unprotected intercourse and multiple partners) during spring break trips45. Similar increase in sexual risk-taking was observed in British University students on summer break when partaking in foreign travel46. These reports would corroborate the hypothesis that young adults engage in riskier sexual activities during times of vacation or holiday.

In our study, we did observe some statistically significant findings with STIs and other holidays. However, since the findings were not consistent among STIs, we felt the findings could result from multiple testing. For instance, in the case of gonorrhea, Memorial Day was associated with a higher risk of a positive test while a lower risk was observed with Mardi Gras. The patient’s birthday was associated with a higher risk of a positive chlamydia test. However, National Girlfriend’s Day was associated with a decreased risk of testing positive for trichomonas. We suspect that these observed differences are likely due to testing patterns and the large number of statistical tests conducted, rather than reflecting underlying biological differences or variations in patient behaviors.

Our results suggest no clear or consistent association of STIs with holidays. Previous literature findings are also mixed in the arena of seasonality of STIs; for example, a 5-year study detected no seasonal difference in the detection of trichomonas47 while a 3-year study on chlamydia suggested peaks of incidence during summer and early fall48. Considering the findings of our study over a 17-year timeframe, we advise that mathematical models of STI transmission should not attempt to account for holidays.

Limitations

Our institutions’ largest hospital acts as a quaternary referral center, so results may not be generalizable to other community EDs or areas with higher baseline STI rates. Our dataset had limited racial and ethnic diversity, with the majority of our patients being White and older, which are demographics associated with lower rates of STIs. All of our STI testing occurred within our Midwest hospital site and its neighboring satellite clinics, limiting geographic generalizability. We only included patients 12 years of age and older. Adolescents (age 12–17 years) represented 5.8% of our total dataset, and these patients may be less likely to be able to receive testing at certain times due to school or work. The aforementioned demographic composition of our patients limits the external validity and introduces potential population-based bias into our findings.

The dataset al.so included the years of the COVID-19 pandemic when individuals may have been less likely to travel during breaks or significant US holidays49. Also, a significant number of adults in the US postponed medical care during the pandemic, including 12.0% who avoided urgent or emergency care50. Furthermore, an additional limitation of our data is the potential to overlook individuals who engage in risky behaviors but do not consistently use health services, which could hinder the identification of potential STI cases in this group. Any of these issues could confound our results.

This analysis was exploratory, so we have not adjusted for multiple testing. The many statistical tests performed to answer the research question increase the likelihood of false positive results. We acknowledge that multiple comparisons could unintentionally affect the conclusions of our study. Specifically, the large number of tests conducted may lead to false significant associations. We see primarily null findings with the holidays, and the few significant findings are inconsistent across the types of STIs. Again, our analysis’s few positive results may be falsely positive as the result of performing many statistical tests.

We did not include all STIs in our analysis. STIs can be asymptomatic and, therefore, diagnosed outside our established timeframe. Not all ED patients were tested for STIs, so we cannot calculate the prevalence of infection among them; furthermore, the setting where STI testing was conducted (ED versus outpatient) may limit the generalizability of our findings. Our analysis did not account for weekends or holidays when the outpatient practice was closed, which could have affected testing rates. We examined multiple holidays with overlapping incubation periods, making assigning the STI to one specific holiday over another more challenging.

Conclusions

Testing positive for gonorrhea, chlamydia, and trichomonas was not consistently associated with a significant US calendar holiday or the patient’s birthday. Weekend visits were, however, significantly associated with a positive STI test result, likely reflecting testing occurring in the ED compared with the outpatient practice.